4680 lithium battery mass production leads the technological innovation of lithium batteries.
What are the changes ?
What are the changes in the demand of each link of the lithium battery industrial chain?
In the first quarter of 2022, Model Y loaded with 4680 batteries will be delivered. It is expected that by the end of 2022, Tesla’s 4680 battery production capacity will reach 100GWh per year, which will be enough to meet the needs of 1.3 million electric vehicles.
4680 li ion battery cells mass production
It is expected to start production after 2023, and battery manufacturers such as CATL, Panasonic, and LG all have capacity plans for 4680 battery technology. As a high-energy density battery, the 4680 cylindrical battery will not only promote the innovation of the lithium battery industry, but also change the needs of all links in the industry chain.
Based on the characteristics of the 4680 battery, the new technical requirements mainly affect the following seven aspects: battery, high nickel cathode, silicon-based anode, carbon nanotube, new lithium salt LiFSI, structural parts, equipment (including: laser film cutting equipment, coating machine, winding machine, high-speed laser tableting machine, welding equipment, etc.).
New industrial chain !
The advantages are obvious, and it is expected to drive a new industrial chain !
According to the data released by Tesla, the new 4680 battery (46mm diameter, 80mm length) has achieved a number of technical indicators improvement: the cruising range has increased by 16%, the charging and discharging power is 6 times that of the 2170 battery, and the energy is 5 times that of the 21700 battery. while the cost can drop by 14% relatively.
It is expected that in 2025, the sales of Tesla’s models equipped with 4680 batteries will exceed 1.6 million, accounting for nearly 50% of Tesla’s total sales, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 123GWh. As yields increase and costs drop in the future, 4680 batteries may be used on Model S and Model X.
Panasonic’s battery department said that Panasonic will trial production of 4680 batteries in April 2022, and it is expected that Tesla will have it installed in 2022.
The structure design of Tesla 4680 Model Y
The characteristics of high energy density and relatively low cost of 4680 battery have the following impact on the new demand of the industry chain:
- Battery: Panasonic will trial production of 4680 batteries in April 2022, and Tesla will be installed in 2022. Other power battery manufacturers such as CATL have also deeply deployed 4680 batteries.
- High-nickel cathode: 4680 is more compatible with high-nickel ternary cathode and silicon-based anode with higher energy density. High nickel has high energy density: the energy density of NCM811 battery module is above 200Wh/kg, while that of NCM333, NCM523 and NCM622 is between 150-180Wh/kg.
- Silicon-based anode material: The addition of 2170 batteries in Model 3 is 5%, and the expected addition of 4680 batteries is 10%. The development space of silicon-based anodes is large, and the compound growth rate is expected to reach 46% from 2022 to 2025.
- Carbon nanotubes: The electrical conductivity of silicon-based anode materials is poor, so it is necessary to increase the use of single-walled carbon nanotubes.
- LiFSI: The new lithium salt LiFSI has better thermal stability, electrochemical stability, and higher electrical conductivity.
- Structural parts: Structural parts manufacturers are actively deploying 4680 battery cases and cover plates. Since the size of the 4680 battery case is similar to the shape of a 330ml can, the can production equipment is also more convenient to develop an automatic battery case production line.
- Manufacturing equipment: Relevant equipment manufacturers have rich technical reserves for 4680 battery manufacturing equipment, and have launched winding machines suitable for full-tab cylindrical batteries, laser film cutting equipment, coating machines, high-speed laser filming machines, tab-free cutting technology, new welding technology.
Summary:
From the perspective of new consumption, silicon-based anodes are expected to double. It is expected that the shipments of silicon-based anode materials in the Chinese market will exceed 10,000 tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 50%, and the year-on-year growth rate will be less than 10% in 2022.
It will grow rapidly to 50% in 2023, it is expected that shipments will reach 22,000 tons in 2025, and the compound growth rate from 2022 to 2025 will be 46%.
From the perspective of technology upgrade requirements, 4680 batteries put forward higher requirements for the performance of new equipment, and the companies with existing technical reserves will have a first-mover advantage.
